Zero. Your chances are zero. Or as close to zero as, say, building your own rocket to launch yourself into orbit using only tools and materials from Home Depot.

I’ve climbed 14,000-foot peaks a dozen times, spent hundreds of nights in the wilderness, taught wilderness first aid, am decent at basic glacier travel techniques, and know the fundamentals of snow and ice climbing. I live in a place that gets to -40 and have worked outside down to -25F. The amateur wouldn’t have any of that experience or knowledge much less the extreme gap between myself and a competent Himalayan climber, like a guy who grew up across Walnut Road from me and was in my Scout troop, Marty Schmidt.

Since coming in first in your class in the US Air Force allowed you to pick your first assignment, Marty came in first and picked Alaska so he could climb Denali (while his day job was Search and Rescue for the USAF). After his tour of duty, he started guiding on Denali and his most difficult task was not rescuing someone from a crevasse or some stretch of difficult exposed ice climbing but was keeping his clients sane while pinned down by a storm in a snow cave for two weeks. Ultimately, he climbed Denali 29 times, Aconcagua 34 times, Mount Cook 26 times and Everest twice.

He guided in New Zealand and the Andes developing, over years and years, the skills to guide on Everest and other Himalayan peaks. He climbed all “Seven Summits” - the tallest mountains on each continent (that includes Antarctica) plus 4 other peaks over 8,000 meters - those highest mountains on Earth.

He and his son, Denali, who had together climbed Denali (establishing a new route) and Broad Peak (8,051 meters in the Himalayas) attempted K2

in July 2013 after trying to rescue three Iranian climbers earlier that month and deescalating a potentially deadly confrontation between Sherpas and western climbers on Everest on April 27. They went missing after an avalanche hit their Camp 3 on K2 on July 26 and their daughter/sister decided to not endanger anyone else to retrieve their bodies.

Things they knew that you and I don’t include:

Advanced glacier, ice, and rock climbing.

Rescue techniques on ice and rock and from glacier cavasses.

Essentially paramedic-level first aid and medical care for injured climbers.

Body memory of rope handling, crampon use, pitching tents in hurricane-force winds, ice screw placement, rope and harness use, cooking and water production at 20,000+ feet, etc, such that they can do all those things and more when in an oxygen-deprived environment.

Route and expedition planning that includes arranging travel, obtaining permits, securing supplies, acclimatizing to extreme elevations, macro- and micro-decisions of route finding, weather forecasting, and staging of equipment at intermediate camps prior to a summit attempt.

And you’ve got to be able to climb steep slopes, in low-oxygen conditions with a 90-pound pack on. Marty was a beast as a 14-year-old rock climber with an incredible strength-to-weight and remained so into his 50’s.

K2 (and Annapurna) are a much more difficult mountains to climb than Everest, with fatality rates (of extremely experienced climbers - not the stockbrokers and lawyers who pay to be guided on Everest) around 30%. Everest has a 4% fatality rate and, again, that’s among well-heeled tourists who have basic skills and excellent physical conditioning but could, in no way, summit an 8,000-meter peak without tremendous support from legions of Sherpa and highly-experienced western guides.

Even if a superbly skilled climber successfully summits K2, they have a 9% chance of dying before getting off the mountain. And surviving doesn’t mean you’ll retain all fingers, toes or feet if you become severely frostbitten.

So, zero. Your chances of summiting as an amateur would be zero.