Well, Android was originally created to steal market share from old Windows/Blackberry plasticy keyboard smartphones, and the adoption of those devices were decidedly low due to their brain-dead user interfaces, cost and complexity - and since the new interloper would essentially clone the look and feel of those old dinosaurs, smart phones would probably have maintained the status quo with cut-throat competition competing fiercely for the nerdy 5-10%.

Because of this - and the fact that no one would want to bet their company on the type of advancement Jobs bet his company on - profits would’ve remained low yielding some slow advancement over the years, but nothing as spectacular as the iPhone.

Remember - a lot of iPhone’s advanced features were possible only because the iPhone team raided the kernel and frameworks of macOS, like core graphics and core animation and core audio.

iPhone had things like translucency and fast PDF rendering from day one, something competing desktop operating systems lacked.