NDO/VNA – The Ministry of Planning and Investment has said that it is coordinating with relevant ministries, agencies and localities to build a national economic restructuring plan for the 2021-2025 period, with an aim to creating a breakthrough change in the growth model towards higher productivity, quality and competitiveness.

April saw the National Assembly in Vietnam agree a new five-year socio-economic development plan covering the years 2016-2020. As part of this plan a number of economic targets have been set. This note looks at the targets and attempts to judge how likely the country is to achieve them. But first, we take a look at the latest PMI data on the performance of the manufacturing sector to gauge the current economic situation. New order growth at nine-month high Latest Nikkei PMI data, produced by Markit, signalled accelerated growth of manufacturing output and new orders in April, with each rising at the fastest rate in nine months. It therefore appears that the soft patch in the sector around the turn of 2016 has come to an end. Higher workloads encouraged firms to increase employment following a decrease in March. Firms also raised their purchasing activity at a sharper pace. Vietnam Manufacturing Output Another index from the PMI survey which saw its pace of change quicken was input prices. Costs rose for the second month running in April, and to the greatest extent for 20 months. Respondents mentioned higher prices for raw materials including steel. Higher costs were often passed on to customers, meaning output prices rose for the first time since September 2014. If these trends continue, we could be seeing an end to the recent lack of inflation in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector and wider economy. The annual rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) has only recently broken the 1% mark having been subdued for much of the past year-and-a-half. PMI Price Indices Latest socio-economic plan announced Nine economic indicators have been assigned targets for 2020 by the National Assembly, covering topics from GDP growth to urbanisation (table of details available in Appendix 1). We will discuss them below and set out how likely they are to be achieved. 1. Average annual GDP growth between 6.5% and 7.0% This would represent an acceleration of growth from the previous five-year period (5.9% average), but given that the global economic environment was challenging in 2012 and 2013 such stronger growth could be achievable if supported by an improved global environment, as was the case in 2015 when a 6.7% expansion was recorded. This positive outlook is of course reliant on global conditions remaining stable or improving, any global downturn over the next five years would clearly knock the target off course. Another reason for optimism is that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement should be brought into force within the five-year period, and is expected to be a real benefit for the Vietnamese economy . 2. GDP per capita between $3,200 and $3,500 in 2020 The chances of meeting this target are a little more challenging than the first. GDP per capita in Vietnam in 2015 was $2,109, with an average growth rate over the past five years of 9.7%. If this growth rate were repeated over the next five years it would take GDP capita to $3,350 in

Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha has approved a geological and mineral strategy through 2030, targeting strategic minerals across Vietnam's mainland, coastal waters, and islands.