No, because Vietnam still heavily supports communism worldwide along with China. Vietnam actively funds the survival of North Korea and every Communist Party in the world along with China. Vietnam and China have been abandoning the usage of USD for almost all critical international transactions like defense contracts and technology transfers.

China, Vietnam, Laos, Cuba, North Korea basically merged all military and public security into the Communist Party.

Vietnam was the first one to do so: basically nullified the functions of the state and put an important amendment into the Constitution that basically gave the Communist Party unlimited power. Vietnam did under the pretext of the Vietnam War where the military under VCP needed massive power for survival. After the war was over, public security emerged more powerful than the military as police forces and intelligence agencies are critical to suppress FULRO and any dissent uprising - again, the VCP controls the public security. Today, we saw the synthesis of public security and military into the VCP as Mr. Trong consolidated the Party into an all-powerful entity.

In China, it was basically a process of reversing problems unnder Deng Xiaoping. He weakened the power of the CCP through transferring the state function back to the government. The rising power of the state instead of the Party was what caused the USSR collapse. Under Deng, he actually made a fatal mistake of transferring military power back to the State Council not the CMC, which Xi Jinping later corrected. Deng's radical reforms changed China too fast and too dangerous. He indirectly caused the Tiananmen Square crisis in the first place. After that even, he lost his power for a good reason. The West adored him because he could have brought down the CCP. Now we have Xi Jinping to fix the revisionism errors from Deng era onward. Xi Jinping hasn't finished his efforts of being like Trong but I suspect he will emulate Vietnamese model to complete the CCP absolute domination after 2022. 100th years anniversary of the CCP founding.

The VCP is even older than the CCP. Ho Chi Minh helped found the CCP. He also founded the Communist Parties in France, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia. Mao Zedong and Ho Chi Minh together played an important role of fostering global Communism after World War 2. Let’s not forget that Vietnamese communists aided the CCP in the Long March to the Chinese Civil War in the very early days! Many of these assistants were high-ranking people within the PLA itself. If anything, I would consider the PLA and PAVN to cooperate and developed military strategies, while the Soviets merely provided ideological training. Both sides co-developed each of their militaries until the rise of pro-USSR people in the VCP like Le Duan.

It’s a fact that both China and Vietnam regularly share intel, tech and teach Communist thoughts among each other.

Party is on the same goal, and the government has a different mind. The Party controls the government, of course. However, there is occasional dissent from the government officials who don't like the Party. This is why you see Xi-Trong are pretty much comrades but not Phuc-Keqiang. There is a huge distinction in the congratulation towards Nguyen Phu Trong by Xi Jinping because it emphasizes the Party over the nation. Communism is above everything else, and nothing matters. In fact, the CCP and VCP are not the apparatus of the State but vaguely referred to as "souls of the State". The Party controls military-public security, all means of force and production, and the shadow economy.

The US thought Vietnam is always anti-China, yet the VCP casually cozies with the CCP on many ventures. Including the assistance to Iran and North Korea. The US thought Russia hating China for the Sino-Soviet split, yet now Russia and China had a military "alliance" (strategic partnership). Don't you know that trade between China-Vietnam-Russia has been mostly absent of the USD for many years now. If you work in the import-export of either state, then you will be aware of it.

The Communist Parties and cabal of Russia manipulate the ultranationalist elements to distract the populace from critical issues and rally popular support for the ruling establishment. Nothing more, nothing less. Most of these ultranationalists happen to be inside the State of their countries. Sergey Lavrov, Wang Yi, Pham Binh Minh are just representatives of the "Deep State" in their countries. They exist just to talk flowery speeches to rally popular support among the people of their nations, while they do not influence how things go in reality. China and Vietnam currently suffer the issue of overburning ultranationalism, and the Communist Parties are doing their best to suppress this element back to Marxist principles. We can see how the CCP begins to rally the ultra-leftist narrative against big corporations like Alibaba or Tencent, and it is a shift from ordinary nationalism.

After mastering the means of production, the bourgeois class will be assimilated back to proletariat class. China is doing it at the moment through the higher presence of Communist committees at every big corporation in China. Vietnam is also doing it at every company at a broader range and a more rapid rate than China. However, Vietnam isn’t arresting arrogant capitalists yet, unlike China.

Every FDI businesses in China and Vietnam is always under influence or control of the Party in many ways. This can be the presence of a labor union/committee (under Communist control) or forced transfer of profits as tributes to the Party/State, and many other ways. Bureaucrats know many tricks better than I can describe here, and they answer to the Party.

China and Vietnam supposed to have a military alliance in 1991. However, the Deng revisionists within the CCP feared the USA will sanction China out of fear to see another Warsaw Pact. As soon as Deng stepped down, Vietnam and China normalize relations but there was no official alliance after the normalization. Vietnam does not have any ally (except Laos officially and Cambodia unofficially). However, it has something called “Strategic comprehensive partnership” as the highest level of international cooperation as almost high as an ally. China was the first one to reach this level with Vietnam.

There are only three partners on this level: China, Russia, India.

China-Vietnam cooperation has been actually happening under the radar for a very long time. Vietnam and China always fund enemies of the West for many decades. Vietnam and China regularly provided food supplies and energy resources to North Korea and Cuba. ietnam is crucial for almost everything for Laos, especially with sea ports. China is crucial for the rapid modernization of Laotian infrastructure which China has better resources than Vietnam in this matter. Vietnam and China assisted the Sri Lankan government successfully against Tamil Tigers. Vietnam is currently having a massive tech conglomerate (Mytel) in Myanmar that helped the military junta to shut down any Western intrusion on cyberspace, while China provides international legal support (UN veto) for the military junta. All because the military junta has socialist past, doesn’t like the West and consistently remains neutral in all conflicts. Myanmar has a very important geopolitical position, and the junta controls the country.

Real politics only matter!

In Africa, both nations pursue different projects that lift the Western reliance from all African nations. Additionally, China is also involved in the new Scrambles that attracted the Western attention, while Vietnam had been doing the same with smuggled lumbers and wildlife goods. Recently, the USTR opened a probe on Vietnamese lumber exports to the West is quite putting the VCP into the spotlight. As well as activating subversion assets like this on wildlife goods trade:

The guy in the picture has been the vocal critic of Vietnamese government and Communist Party. He has reactionary and pro-West views to the extreme. He has been consistently smearing the government on the Internet for years. Probably, he was bitter after getting kicked out of all official TV program and shows since he is a career MC. Now, the photo surfaced that he was sponsored by USAID the entire time. Here's more in details:

Remember THIS: whatever China did or will do, then there will always be a Russian or Vietnamese element in there to resist US imperialism.

The USA still bets on Vietnam to turn against China because of the South China Sea. Every article about Vietnam is always the Western fearmongering of evil, imperialist China. If not China-related, the articles are always bashing the Vietnamese Communist Party. Communism is bad - basic moral of every Western article on China or Vietnam or other communist states. Vietnam and China peacefully resolved the land borders and Gulf of Tonkin in the past (of which the West ignored and tried to hype up a war to sell weapons), so South China Sea would not be an issue. Fortunately, Vietnam led the ASEAN in 2020 to create a general agreement that denounced any possibility of conflicts and everything will be resolved diplomatically. China can cede back the control of SCS to Vietnam, as it did with Fushui island, under the conditions that Vietnam will not side with the USA - this possibility can be very real. Again, the SCS is being kept at the eternal stage of limbo where all nations denounce any aggressor. That’s referring to China but it’s ambiguously good. Why? China and Vietnam are challenging the hypocrisy of the USA for it is not a signatory in UNCLOS. The USA can sail anywhere and lay claims anywhere, why not China or Vietnam? Now, ASEAN countries can freely share the seas for any political ambition against the West in the future if they ever desire to.

In truth, neoliberals within the Pentagon know that the South China Sea conflict between China and Vietnam is a facade but they still hope to pull the Sino-Soviet split 2.0 against China-Russia. Last but not least, Japan is the one who created the FOIP (Free and Open Indo-Pacific) efforts where Vietnam (and Indonesia to a lesser extent) is central - the Japanese elites see Taiwan is gradually out of their influence, so they hope that they can groom Vietnam into their side instead. The term 'Indo-Pacific' has no geographic, political or cultural meaning because the aim is simple: to exclude and contain China. It is a Cold War Mark 2 strategy designed to counter China's rise.

This is why the US was trying to get aircraft basing rights (Indonesia Rebuffs US Request to Host Spy Planes: Report) in Indonesia and is essentially giving Vietnam a Coast Guard fleet (US to provide Vietnam with coast guard ship, with eye on South China Sea). Japan is the one who draws the USA to act favorable towards Vietnam in the last decades. One can say that Japan is the intermediary between Vietnam and the USA in diplomacy. Anyway, Japanese efforts failed to groom Vietnam into their side.

The USA will probably pursue a path of bringing ASEAN into the fold after Vietnam led the ASEAN into an important agreement of maintaining neutrality at all costs in 2020. This will start with the less interference in the domestic affairs of ASEAN nations because China primarily uses this reason to persuade ASEAN to distrust the Americans. Indonesia's defense minister was literally in the Pentagon recently (Prabowo redeemed in Washington’s eyes amid US-China rivalry). He was previously blacklisted due to human rights concerns in East Timor. In response, China will probably provide economic helps for development in exchange that all countries remain neutral. What does China need is the allegiance to remain neutral from the ASEAN. If this happens as it probably will, then FOIP strategy will flop hard.

Of course, this is also why these CIA assets are activated now for Vietnam. The USA was quite pissed at Vietnam that ASEAN is unlikely to join QUAD as they previously propelled anti-China protests in Vietnam within 2017 as well as anti-monarchy protests in Thailand, anti-neoliberalism protests in Indonesia,...This is why the ASEAN and Vietnam remain extremely neutral because the USA interfered with their domestic politics in 2010s with massive protests. The USA trained the dissidents in all SEA countries through YEASLI program.

The threat of designation as a currency manipulator for Vietnam was the first step! Vietnam used its dominant position in the ASEAN, rising economic might, and an unique relationship with China to threaten the American war hawks to back down. It worked!

The second step is challenging Vietnamese claims to seas around resort island in South China Sea - Con Dao island has been in Vietnamese control solidly as Hainan in China, and China doesn’t dispute it at all, yet the USA now provoked troubles! It’s safely in close water of Vietnamese territory. In fact, the USA now provokes Vietnam at the same time with China is really stupid. This will drive China and Vietnam into a military alliance if it went too far. The last thing that the USA doesn’t want is to see Vietnam and China fully allied like the old Soviet days. Both countries conduct the blockade in the SCS and Singapore which will cripple the East Asian economy severely as well as American influence in Far East Asia. This is why Pentagon and State Department now fear Vietnam more that respect Vietnam.

Before 2010s, the anti-Communist efforts are largely more dangerous and widespread than now because the West infiltrated into various positions of the government and Party in Vietnam and China. You have many former Communist leaders at the time openly criticizing Communism. You also saw a period of widespread protests and ethnic conflicts - Vietnam with Central Highlands and China with Tibet and Xinjiang. If Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong didn’t rise to power, Communism would have lost in China and Vietnam. Dengism and Vietnamese revisionism were good at accelerating economic growth but almost brought political systems of both nations into the West’s spheres in 2008. Many hardcore Marxists in both parties worried of the erosion of Communism after 2008 when both nations suffered economic crises but recovered better than the West. Jiang Zemin and Nguyen Tan Dung at the time were highly capitalist and Western-aligned. Zemin was prepared to drop the Communism from China to replace it with Han chauvinist capitalism. Han Chinese chauvinists and Vietnamese ultranationalists that we see on social media are byproducts of Jiang Zemin and PM Dũng era when the West almost liberalized both nations. Most of Chinese chauvinists are overseas Chinese idiots who were once useful during Jiang Zemin era but they became obsolete in Xi Jinping era. The CCP uses them occasionally for wolf warrior diplomacy - a chance for CCP underlings to score points for upward mobility in the bureaucracy.

After 2009, the Western economy became damaged so bad that they altered policies to become more isolationist politically but more globalized economically. Chinese and Vietnamese communists seized the chance to use their workshop of the world status to force the West stop meddling into Communist affairs! Except President Trong was the one made many reforms before Xi Jinping, as mentioned in the beginning of this post. This included the ones to transfer state authorities to the Party. Vietnam did it first, while the CCP recently took away power to make war from the State Council. It worked as China and Vietnam systematically dismantled any hard power reactionary movements.

Both China and Vietnam didn’t pacify the ideological struggles to allow ultranationalism going rampant. It almost ended Communism there as people were on high with nationalism instead of Communism. All the hatred of Han chauvinists towards Vietnam and Vietnamese nationalists towards China come from the work of these “Red capitalists”. Those Chinese fascists that we see online are idiots who will be ditched by the CCP soon. Ultranationalism is merely a tool for the means for the CCP, and you can see it when China suddenly stopped all anti-Japan hate festivals after China surpassed Japan. Ultranationalism is an useful tool to rally popular support among the population but it’s hardly a relevant tool for big power game.

For many Chinese communists, they see Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao as traitors who were willing to sell out Communism and China. Of course, the Chinese military-public security (very loyal to Socialism) wasn't sitting well with their revisionism. Xi Jinping's rose to power can be seen as the important lever to bring the Communist Party back into relevance. The military and public security are the vanguards of the CCP, so they fully backed Xi Jinping. China's anti-corruption campaigns should be compared to the Long March for a good reason. Xi Jinping and the CCP are gradually unwinding the power of the Chinese government back to the Communist Party, and undo all Deng Xiaoping's revisionist "mistakes".

Opinion | The rise of the 'red capitalists' (Published 2007)

If the “Red Capitalists” reign went unopposed, then they could have collapsed communism in both states. Jiang Zemin thought much like Chiang Kai-shek: "appeasement is the solution to everything". In fact, many in Beijing thought the same way. Jiang Zemin's role should not be dismissed as he and Hu Jintao went on a capitalist expansion spree for decades. China rocked with corruption but a rising capitalist economy faster than anyone under these two Communist chiefs. Unlike Deng, they focus on maintaining capitalist control through the CCP. Basically, they want to remove the socialist aspects from the CCP to only become just another authoritarian party. Jack Ma and Jackie Chan were in the league of Jiang Zemin, so Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan put them down. The famous anti-CCP crusader, Guo Wengui, is also of Jiang faction as well.

For example, China has a very extensive list of successors and whatnot. Everyone inside the CCP knows who's next and who's in charge. Americans used to know too because up until 2010 the CIA had people from top to bottom that were telling them all the internal workings. Then Xi took power and instituted anti-corruption reforms combined with big-data collection to successfully identify and purge every last CIA-associated CCP member (China Used Stolen Data to Expose CIA Operatives in Africa and Europe), which is why now they are back to speculating based off of wild guesses. This is the first in a deeply researched three-part series by the FP on the spy data wars between the USA and PRC. Lots of good detail about the consequences of the OPM spy hack, including how China was able to identify CIA agents as soon as they landed in countries in Africa and Europe.

The most interesting revelation is how thoroughly embedded the CIA was into the Chinese party-state apparatus, to the point where they were paying the bribes for officials on their payroll to rise up the ranks. The extent of this rot helped set the stage for Xi Jinping's anti-corruption purges. Inadvertently the exposure of the CIA's penetration into the CCP/PRC provided the basis for its recentralization and aggressive global posture under Xi. It is very interesting anecdote considering how Xi’s recent actions have the West painted him as a hard-ruling authoritarian, and how this appearance has damaged China’s reputation internationally. A lot of very high up members of the CCP were discovered to have been US assets. They--in order to keep CIA money flowing in--would likely be more willing to open conciliatory gestures towards the US. Their removal allowed for others who were more staunchly anti-US and thus not on the CIA payroll to move into their posts, which on the outside can give off the appearance of the party taking on a sharply anti-US approach than before. When Xi Jinping said he was anti-corruption, we all thought it was a euphemism for consolidating power, but he actually did implement anti-corruption measures because it makes people vulnerable to being assets for foreign governments.

Vietnam has the same issue of revisionism and purged it a year or two before the rise of Xi. After 2016, Vietnamese dissent and reactionary movements are virtually dead in the country as all reactionaries in the leadership positions were purged. This purge of them was only possible due to learnings from Soviet collapse, which is due to treason that Putin later solved and put down through his anti-corruption and oligarchs crackdown which centralized state control. Russia is the precursor of current China and Vietnam political model in the post-Soviet world where the states have the ultimate say on big businesses as well as the control of all crime syndicates for intelligence warfare. It was Putin Russia first pioneered the usage of crime syndicates and cyber warfare for intelligence gatherings and espionage. Today Russia is still very socialist with many state industries and corporations. The military and security rule is omnipresent which many members are ardent Soviet enthusiasts. It just lacks the ruling Communist Party, and that’s the sad part.

Recently, the USA promised not to ever interfere Vietnamese politics again. What you are really seeing now in the picture is a pocket of declining dissidents try to gain relevance. Of course, Canada and EU now fund them. Vietnamese reactionaries admitted that the Party has become too powerful. The West has abandoned them, while lonely Europeans are their only allies. Of course, the EU's activities is also on verge of collapse as both France and Germany surrendered many favorable trade deals with China and Vietnam like the EVFTA.

Why?

The Vietnamese and Chinese Communist Party has become more powerful than ever!

The type of anti-Communist activities has changed. They used to do direct approach with China and Vietnam but failed. They resorted to rhetorics and propaganda instead. It means that they are desperate but more dangerous. It also means that both CCP and VCP need to manage information better. The issue here is the rise of ultranationalism in both nations seeded by the West. This was the very scheme that caused the fall of USSR in Eastern Europe. I am quite disturbed at the recent surge of Han Chinese and Vietnamese chauvinists speaking fascist stuffs no Marxist materials. I also discovered how many of them are very friendly to Western ideas - paid by the CIA. They include tone-deaf Chinese chauvinists who are definitely not fitting the CCP at all. The same thing applies with anti-Chinese fools in Vietnam. As long as these figures don’t cause any major political embarrassment, then everything will be safe. Ultranationalism is a dangerous distraction and a reactionary two-edged dagger that can certainly endanger Communism. Anyway, there is a strange rise of discussion on Sino-Vietnamese relations. All of them deal with the duality of nationalism in a way to provoke conflicts. Again, I suspect the Americans are stirring shit up between Chinese and Vietnamese population.

The fall of USSR largely attributed to the openness of cultural nationalism and religiousity where Poland was the biggest culprit who used nationalism to inflame its people into fascist reactionaries. Around China, we already see South Korea and Japan dunking nationalism against each other, and they primarily use cultures to pit hatred against each other. In both Poland and East Asia, the West benefits the most as they continue to destabilize both regions to sell more weapons and keep any antagonizing power in check. For example, Hanfu movements suddenly prop up without any Communist supervision, and they can be dangerous tools being used by Western reactionaries.

Fortunately, CCP and VCP are focusing on the big game not petty ultranationalist squabbles. This is why I prefer Communists to throw away nationalist topics of China-Vietnam because they aren’t really productive and realistic in modern world. It’s also a scheme from the West to inflame nationalism against both Communist Parties.

EDIT: I am not surprised if the USA found out that the recent hackings into SolarWinds and US agencies to have Vietnamese involvement. Chinese hackers and Russian hackers are oversaturated because they are big foes of the West. Vietnam has been advocated and advanced its cyber warfare around the same time that China did. There was a hacker named HieuPC who caused $1 billion damage to the USA through fraudulent hackings. There is also a student guy in Japan who crippled various government computers as well. APT32 was recently discovered as a private company, not even a military level unit. A private enterprise can do serious damages without using military level hackers is damn next level for Vietnam. I personally suspect the recent hack is a multinational operation that was headed by Russia. India, Vietnam, Turkey, China, Iran,... probably have big hands in this.

The CIA won the information wars against USSR through corrupting young Communists. Nikita Krushchev was one hell of a corrupt agent working for the CIA. After the USSR collapse, China and Vietnam realized the importance of information warfare. This is why both Communists utilized ultranationalism to keep the population in line with the Party.

After solidifying enough political influence and hard power, both countries gradually drop the ultranationalism as it can be back-firing. Both countries had two periods of using ultranationalist movements to rally popular support to solidify the Party’s control. China did a massive anti-Japan protests in 2012 that gained massive popularity approval. Vietnam did an anti-China protest in 2014 to secure massive political support for the Party. Now, both countries won massively against COVID-19 as the popular support for both Parties reached all time high to the point that overseas communities highly support either Party.

Information warfare is really important! If the USSR used the right rhetorics and controlled all information, then things could have gone differently.

When it comes to Vietnam, I personally suggest the ultranationalists among both China and Vietnam should shut up. Let’s the Marxists do their jobs!

At the moment, we have this cooperation:

China and Vietnam has the smuggling issues for decades now. Chinese human traffickers kidnap Vietnamese minorities and Chinese/Vietnamese smugglers flood unreliable goods into Vietnam. At the same time, Vietnamese smugglers smuggle Vietnamese migrants into China and many other things. Not to mention, the smuggling network between China and Vietnam can be considered as the land based “Silk Road” for organized crimes of both nations to smuggle drugs, illegal wildlife goods, illegal lumbers, fake goods across the world.

Vietnam originally intends to a build a border wall but China did first. Short term, Covid-19. Long term, smuggling.

We should not look in the past and need to look at the present. The future is Communism that will not only unite Asia but the world. The capitalists use ultranationalism to divide countries against each other, so they can profit. South Korea and Japan are the best example of how American defense contractors keep getting rich each year. Chinese ultranationalists and Vietnamese ultranationalists all were discovered lately to have Western influence or funding. I am quite glad that both CCP and VCP keep these people on the leashes, unlike SK and Japan. The long term goal of East Asian instability is the opportunistic chaos that enables high level of growth for American defense contractors as well as the zero possibility of an East Asian bloc to challenge American dominance.

For this reason, I loathe any nationalism from any country. I only focus on the big game which the CCP and VCP are doing now. Communism on global stage.

Christianity and Islam are hardcore, early forms of Communism. Jesus wants the abolition of private properties in favor of communes. Many pre-historic states thought about socialism and communism. It was Karl Marx and other thinkers of his time successfully explained and formulated a working philosophy for the future. Today Muslims are mandated by laws to do charities and donate parts of their income for charities.

Western capitalists keep twisting the messages of holy people!

Marx is proven right again. Capitalism will eventually devour itself to the point of sacrificing the production of real materials for the sake of super high profits within financial rentier capitalism where there is no actually physical good.

China and Vietnam practice the realistic economics or Marxist economics because they emphasize the philosophy of materials determining the wills. The physical, material economy is the only economy.

Robert Spalding, a fierce critic of China, admitted that the West is losing because the Western elites don’t invest into the people and are short sighted of pursuing a rentier economy instead of physical one (they don’t read Marxist works). The USA favored the rentier economy over the physical economy.

Out of the big three, I think the USA will still survive the fallout since they still possess core technologies and industrial independence. The Europeans will survive at a huge loss, even if they have a degree of industrial independence, because they are the most ill-prepared for decades now. The EU says in public it wants Vietnam to abide by the "labor laws" or "human rights" clauses but what it really wants is for Vietnam to follow the other 99% neoliberal "free market" conditions. The biggest argument from Western capitalists / Viet political dissidents for why CPV is weak was the EVFTA as they assume that Vietnam will follow negotiated guidelines from the declining EU. Good luck if the EU wants Vietnamese people to purchase German goods or having Vietnamese good words to China. Vietnam recently had the largest mass arrest festival of reactionaries in history even after signing the EVFTA. Vietnam and China have been reneging stupid neoliberal craps from the WTO for decades. This new friendship with EU won’t be different.

Japan will suffer the worst once the global investors lose faith in the country since the country is the most devastated by neoliberalism in the 1990s. Bank of Japan owns most of the equities and stocks now.

Bank of Japan is crazily firing all of its ammunitions to assure Japan’s sovereign credit ratings won’t go down. Meanwhile, Fitch downgraded Japan to A level in 2020, a step closer towards a developing country level. If Olympics won’t occur to maintain credit rating, then Japan will be downgraded by Moody and S&P. If Japan’s credit rating goes down so bad, Japanese MMT will meet reality where Japanese bonds will probably be adjusted to the natural market, no more central banking intervention. When it happens, I expect a hyperinflation.

Just look at the outward investment data into Southeast Asia. China and South Korea are willing to pull at least 10 billion dollars each at minimum (China can easily rally much more). Japan meagerly pulls around 2 billion dollars at maximum.

Japan’s sovereign credit rating still allows the country to rally more capitals. The only advantage that it has over Vietnam and Indonesia. However, Japanese economy is faltering quickly as Olympics 2020 is unlikely to occur. A further credit downgrade is definitely imminent, so Japan won’t risk massive borrowings that can bring the credit down. Not to mention that many international financial institutions have been doubting Japan for a long time.

Japan will be lucky to have a collapse, as it will reset the whole thing towards a better path, but Japanese elites deeply fear the Americans who won’t allow Japan to do so. The reset of Japanese economy means a likely path towards independence away from the West.