Originally Asked: Is it true that Russia has a large nuclear arsenal, but the exact number of missiles is unknown due to their secrecy about their military?

Yes. According to official sources, Russia has just shy of 6000 nuclear weapons. However, Russia has some serious problems. The first problem is, they are always bluffing. The second problem is, they are very loose about their paperwork, claiming broken down non-function things as part of their inventory. The third problem, somewhat related, is there is rampant theft among the military and political leaders. So, on paper, Russia has the largest nuclear weapon stockpile in the world. In reality … I would not be surprised if Russia has nearly ZERO functioning nuclear weapons.

Bluffing can work really well, but it has to be used sparingly. In some ways, it is like the old bait and switch concept. With bait and switch you show people something they expect to see, then suddenly switch it out for something unexpected. This is common in American football with the play-action pass and the draw play. In a play action pass, the offense lines up in a hand off type formation, pretends they are going to hand the ball off, but then throws it instead. The draw play is the opposite, where the offense lines up in a throwing formation, but then uses a running play instead. For the bait and switch to work, the bait has to be believable. You can’t surprise the defense by changing a run play to a passing play, if it is a situation that requires a passing play. Also, you can’t surprise the defense by changing a run play to a passing play, if you are constantly trying to use the same trick. Those sudden tricks can be very effective, but they have to be used sparingly and in situations where one is expecting the opposite. Russia spends so much time bluffing on things that, other governments of the world, just don’t believe what Russia has to say. Russia may claim to have nearly 6000 nuclear weapons, but they’re government spokesmen just aren’t believable.

A good piece of evidence that they are bluffing on their nuclear stockpile, is their bluffs about other military equipment. The number tanks for example. Russia supposedly has around 15,000 tanks. However, pictures like these show up on the internet.

A bunch of rusted out hunks of garbage covered in old weeds. Notice the gaps where some of the tanks have been moved, but others left in place. Pretty good evidence that the ones left in place don’t even run anymore. On paper, Russia claims they have 15,000 tanks, but I suspect thousands of them couldn’t drive across the battle field, and many of those would explode in a ball of flame after a few firings of the main gun. There is similar evidence about their navy, artillery, and IFV’s. I see no reason to doubt their nuclear arsenal would be any different.

Then there is the constant theft. Since Russia has invaded Ukraine, all kinds of stories have come out about diesel fuel that has gone missing. Russian soldiers being issued paintball replicas instead of bullet proof armor. Millions of uniforms that were supposedly delivered but no one can find them. High power explosives, but when the package is opened they contain blocks of wood. Military rations being delivered that expired decades ago, because the fresh ones are missing. This all shows how the politicians, military leaders, and oligarchs work together to steal the Russian tax payer’s money. As I understand it, the USA has a nuclear arsenal of just over 5000 bombs/warheads, about 20% fewer than Russia. These are high tech weapons that need constant maintenance and upkeep to ensure their effectiveness. Tritium can get into the fissile material causing it to fail to have a powerful nuclear reaction. There are important, delicate, computer parts that periodically break down and need to be replaced. The fuel needs be examined and cleaned up to ensure the rocket will fly. When it comes to maintenance, the USA spends $50 billion dollars a year to maintain that arsenal. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the entire Russian military budget for decades, was less than $50 billion dollars (it has increased with the war in Ukraine). To maintain that nuclear arsenal, Russia would have to spend almost every penny in their military budget on maintaining their nuclear weapons, which they obviously haven’t. With that in mind, it seems pretty plausible that, over the last 30 years, Russia’s nuclear arsenal has fallen into a state of disrepair and is no longer functional, if it ever was. Perhaps the uranium got stolen, diluted down from weapon’s grade to power plant grade, and sold to power plants in Leningrad or Kursk. Perhaps the uranium was never enriched to weapons grade, and Russian warheads are made with 99% U238, which isn’t going to produce a nuclear explosion. Perhaps the rocket fuel has been stolen and sold to China. Perhaps the fissile material has been contaminated and will no longer explode properly. Perhaps the delicate hardware has broken down and not been replaced, so the weapons will just detonate right where they’re sitting, instead of flying to their intended target. There’s a lot of options for how the Russian nuclear arsenal could have become ineffective, and a lot of reason to believe it has or will happen. So there is a great deal of secrecy in the Russian military. They don’t just keep secrets from other countries, but also from other Russian military personnel, so know one will know who stole what from where.

So, the answer is, yes, it is true that on paper Russia has a large nuclear arsenal. It is also true that very little is known about that nuclear arsenal because of their military secrecy. Russia’s military likes to bluff, but they bluff so much, people think they’re ALWAYS bluffing and very few people actually believe what the Russian military and government are saying. Second, they are terrible about paperwork. They have reports and paperwork showing tens of thousands of pieces of military equipment. However, when people go out into the field to examine and verify the reports, we get pictures of rusted out hunks of junk that don’t actually work. Third, over the past decades Russia has NEVER devoted enough money to maintaining a nuclear arsenal of its claimed size and Russian politicians, oligarchs, and military leaders are so corrupt they are constantly working together to steal from the government. Thus, it is impossible to know how much, if any, of that nuclear arsenal will actually function as intended.